Beijing 10 Nov (Xinhua) -- Expert's View on Global Climate Change Protocols 
	
	
 The seventh Conference of the Parties (COP 7) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Marrakesh, Morocco, from 29 October to 9 November. Dr. Ren Guoyu, an expert meteorologist at the National Climate Center of China, pointed out that the Kyoto Protocol was only the first step to resolve global warming during his interview with Xinhua News Agency. He indicated that there is a long way to go and a great deal of effort to put in before global warming can be successfully arrested. 
	
	
 According to Dr. Ren, humans released excessive amounts of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere in the past century, particularly in the past 50 years. Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is higher than any time in the past several hundred thousand years. This excessive emission of greenhouse gases has caused the mean global temperature to rise by 0.4 to 0.8 degree C in the past 140 years. If emission of greenhouse gases is not rigorously limited and is allowed to continue to climb, then the average global temperature may surge by 1.5 to 5.8 C. The sea level will rise by nine to 88 millimeters. It will be disastrous to many countries. In addition, global warming will bring about frequent extreme weather phenomena, such as cold spells, heat waves, torrential rain, and tornadoes, to threaten our society. He also warned that an abrupt climate change might take place when a critical value of temperature rise is exceeded. In certain regions, the temperature may rise suddenly and sharply. In other regions, it may fall precipitously. It will have a deleterious effect on mankind. This disaster can only be averted if we all join in to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to stop global warming. 
	
	
 According to this expert, the United States is the largest greenhouse gas-emitting country in the world. And its total emissions continue to rise. In March, the new Bush Administration openly declared it would rescind its promise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the "Kyoto Protocol." Its excuses include that it will harm the US economy and there is insufficient participation by developing nations. Dr. Ren was critical of this irresponsible decision by the US Government. He indicated that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is accumulated over the past 100-200 years. The amount of greenhouse gases emitted by most developing nations in the past several decades only represents a small fraction of the total emission. This increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is caused by industrialized nations. Furthermore, on a per capita basis, emissions by developing nations are also far less than that by industrialized nations. China's per capita emission is only one-sixth that of the United States. It mainly requires the joint effort of industrialized nations to resolve global warming. It is a mistake for the United States to use such an excuse to evade its responsibility. 
	
	
 He also pointed out: Although the Kyoto Protocol did not set a reduction target for China, however, China is very concerned about global climate change-related issues in recent years. It has significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions by efficiency improvement, energy conservation, and development of advanced energy technology. Its effort is well recognized around the globe. 
	
	
 To implement the Kyoto Protocol, according to Dr. Ren, usually a country would incur an economic loss equivalent to 1 percent of its GDP when it tries to lower greenhouse emissions 1 percent. There is no way for a weak, developing nation to absorb such a burden. It needs monetary and technical assistance from industrialized nations. However, to protect their own interests, a few industrialized nations repeatedly made outrageous demands in past UNFCCC conferences. In the Bonn conference in July, Japan even made new demands regarding the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Finally, a compromise was reached after developing nations and the EU made a significant concession. The Kyoto Protocol was significantly weakened as a result. During this conference, countries such as Japan, Russia, Australia, and Canada played the same tactic again to try to delay the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. The United States continues to refuse to fulfill its obligations. Negotiation was stymied. In order to implement the treaty as soon as possible, developing nations and the EU agreed to a compromise. However, future negotiations are not expected to be smooth either. 
	
	
 As a reminder, Dr. Ren pointed out: The Kyoto Protocol is merely a gesture for mankind to stop global warming. Fundamentally, the targets set by the Kyoto Protocol are far less than what actually will take to effectively curb global warming. The Kyoto Protocol will officially be implemented after Earth Summit 2002 to be held in September in Johannesburg, South Africa. Mankind should continue to work on a solution to global warming. The next step will be even more difficult. It is a long road ahead of us. Dr. Ren suggested that developing nations should also join forces in emissions reduction in the future. 
	
	
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