Many fear violence after Zimbabwe vote HARARE, Zimbabwe Wellington Chinyama sat down in a barber's chair, unfolded his newspaper and without glancing up asked the young man trimming his hair the question that seems to be on virtually everyone's mind here: "So Joseph, have you prepared yourself for Zimbabwe's civil war?" As Zimbabweans go to the polls this weekend to re-elect or oust Robert Mugabe, the only leader the country has ever known, the question of who will win the election seems almost secondary to how the loser and his followers will respond. Surveys show the challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai, a trade union leader, ahead of Mugabe. But a surge in political violence and accusations that the governing party changed election laws to rig the vote have fanned widespread concerns among Zimbabweans, election monitors and foreign diplomats that neither political party nor their supporters are prepared to accept the final tally. "It does not take a vivid imagination to envision a scenario on the ground where either rioters or the military take to the streets in the days to come," an African diplomat said. Most disturbing are pronouncements by senior government officials and military leaders that they would not allow this former British colony to be led by Tsvangirai and his political party, the Movement for Democratic Change. In a television interview broadcast the other day, Didymus Mutasa, a spokesman for Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party, said that he and other veterans of the country's independence war found the prospect of a Tsvangirai government intolerable. "People have said being ruled by the MDC is being ruled by Ian Smith," Mutasa said, referring to the prime minister of white-ruled Rhodesia, as the country was known before gaining independence in 1980. "Under these circumstances, if there were to be a coup, we would support it very definitely." At least 34 people have died in political violence this year, almost all of them supporters of the Movement for Democratic Change. State Department officials this week accused Mugabe's government of numerous human rights violations during the election campaign, an allegation vehemently denied by ZANU-PF officials. A newspaper reported that Mugabe had put the armed forces on "high alert" and had recalled soldiers from neighboring Congo, where they have been deployed in that country's civil war. Police Commissioner Augustine Chihuri denied the reports. Many Zimbabweans see this weekend's election as a contest between immovable forces: a 78-year-old autocrat desperate to remain in power and an opposition party dominated by restless young citizens weary of government corruption, food shortages and unemployment. "If Mugabe announces that he has won the election, I think that people will not believe it and will storm the castle," said Sibongile Mbuyiso, an opposition supporter. "But if the MDC wins, I believe Mugabe will announce martial law, throw Tsvangirai in jail for plotting to kill him and send the army into the streets." Government officials last month charged Tsvangirai and two other officials of his party with high treason for allegedly plotting to assassinate Mugabe. That charge is based largely on a heavily edited videotape in which Tsvangirai refers to the "elimination" of Mugabe. Tsvangirai was responding to a question posed by a Canadian publicist with whom he was meeting and who subsequently signed a contract with ZANU-PF. Political analysts say the charges may have laid the groundwork for Mugabe to jail Tsvangirai as a last-ditch effort to stay in power should he lose the election. But that outcome is certainly not a foregone conclusion. Opposition officials say that 22 of their polling agents have been abducted in the past week, and a surge in violent attacks in swing districts could persuade enough opposition supporters to vote for ZANU-PF to ensure Mugabe's victory. In addition, governing party officials have revised election laws and procedures in a manner that could change the outcome of the vote, according to independent election observers. ZANU-PF officials have told election observers that they intend to increase the number of polling stations in rural areas believed to be their strongholds and reduce the number of stations in urban areas, where there is strong support for the opposition. Observers say that could produce long voting lines and discourage some Tsvangirai supporters from casting ballots. ZANU-PF election officials also plan to use civil service employees to monitor the vote-counting and bar independent monitors from nonprofit organizations from assisting in such routine tasks as transporting ballot boxes to counting stations. A residency requirement introduced last month bans registered voters from casting ballots if they cannot provide leases or utility bills in their names. That, according to foreign diplomats and Tsvangirai supporters, could disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of young opposition supporters who live with their parents. "Clearly, Mugabe is doing everything he can to steal this election," said John Makumbe, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai said at a news conference Thursday night that if he won the election, he would not prosecute Mugabe. That could ease pressure on Mugabe to remain in power to avoid prosecution for his government's attack in the 1980s in Matabeleland, the home of the Ndebele tribe, which at the time posed the most significant threat to his leadership. An estimate of the number of people killed in the operation ranges from 10,000 to 20,000. Copyright @ 2002 the International Herald Tribune All Rights Reserved