US President Bush, after visiting Japan and South Korea, will follow with a visit to China. Whether Bush will, like Clinton, damage Taiwan's interests is receiving the deep concern of all quarters. The protection of Taiwan's interests under the US-Japan alliance structure is fairly strong. Before President Bush visits China, Japanese naval strategy expert Kawamura Sumihiko and missile expert Sato Mamoru were exclusively interviewed by a reporter of this newspaper. They reiterated the importance of Taiwan's strategic position and at the same time put forward their views with regard to the situation in the Taiwan Strait. 
	
	
 Kawamura: Japan and Taiwan are both exporting nations. Stable ocean traffic is an absolute necessity. Last year, approximately 5.1 billion tons of goods passed through the world's oceans, about one third of which passed through the sea areas of southern China. Half of this one third was transported to Japan through the sea areas near Taiwan. The traffic on Taiwan's seas is extremely important to Japan. If Taiwan becomes a part of China, all of Taiwan's sea areas will be threatened. China is currently in the process of actively expanding as a maritime nation. Its purpose is to ensure resources and the lives of a population of 1.5 billion people. However, China is not a nation that is able to abide by international rules, and for this reason, there will inevitably be conflicts on the ocean. Under these circumstances, Taiwan and Japan both must recognize clearly the important role of the navy. 
	
	
 Question: What is your appraisal of Taiwan's navy? 
	
	
 Kawamura: Frankly speaking, Taiwan's navy is worrisome. Anti-submarine combat strength is extremely low, and in particular there are many old style naval aircraft that, compared to Japan, are possibly 30 to 40 years behind. Torpedo strength is also insufficient. The Navy's problems are very large. For example, there is only one submarine attached to each naval base. It can only be said that this is nothing more than an embellishment and fundamentally cannot accomplish anything. Taiwan should make an all out effort to augment naval combat strength. In past Taiwan-US arms sale negotiations, the PC-3 early warning aircraft and the MH53 helicopter that Taiwan has made requests to purchase are entirely suitable to Taiwan's needs. The PC-3's intelligence exchange system is extremely important and is not inferior to the Aegis destroyer. 
	
	
 Question: Will the United States sell Aegis destroyers to Taiwan? 
	
	
 Kawamura: One of the reasons that the United States has all along not provided Aegis destroyers to Taiwan is that in the past the United States considered Taiwan's armed forces to be the armed forces of the Nationalist Party, not the armed forces of the nation. Nationalization of the armed forces after Lee Teng-hui (Li Teng-hui) and the loyal attitude of the armed forces after Chen Shui-bian (Ch'en Shui-pien) came into office have already gradually allowed the United States to feel at ease. Although Japan and the United States haven't recognized it, in reality, the United States, Japan and Taiwan currently are already situated in a kind of virtual alliance. I reckon that at the last stage, the United States will provide the Aegis destroyer to Taiwan. It is not possible that the Republican Party will get along with China, Taiwan can again wait for a little while. 
	
	
 Question: Where is China's true threat to Taiwan 
	
	
 Sato: China's threat to Taiwan is the use of the three methods of missiles, amphibious landing, and submarine blockades. The most likely method is to use missiles to threaten Taiwan psychologically. 
	
	
 Question: How should Taiwan respond to China's missile threat? 
	
	
 Sato: I gave a speech on this issue in Taiwan. Taiwan has some people who very obviously purposely play up China's use of force to scare Taiwan. In 1996, the Chinese People's Liberation Army indeed fired four missiles near Taiwan, but this was a kind of propaganda war. Before the United States attacked Afghanistan, it first explained the reasons to every nation of the world, and China using missiles to attack Taiwan is certainly not simple. If China only uses common warheads, at most, it would only make a few holes in Taiwan. If warheads with biological weapons are used, China has no means to justify this to international public opinion. During the Second World War, Germany fired 7,000 V1 and V2 missiles at England and England did not surrender. Recently, old Yugoslavia fired 3,000 missiles at Kosovo and Kosovo also did not surrender. This is an issue of will. 
	
	
 Question: What is the significance for Taiwan of the United States and Japan jointly researching TMD theater missile defense system technology? 
	
	
 Sato: After the 9-11 incident, the United States will be even keener on developing TMD. Taiwan is also very important to the United States, especially Taiwan's strategic position. The possibility of the TMD anti-missile system covering Taiwan in the future is very great. Currently, Taiwan's Patriot missiles are effective against guided missiles. I reckon that the probability of war occurring between China and Taiwan is smaller than small. Not using peaceful methods to resolve the Taiwan issue won't do, and I reckon that the US-Japan summit talks will discuss the issue of the two shores. 
	
	
 However, Taiwan announcing independence to the outside world is a variable. Taiwan announcing independence is not itself a problem, but because Taiwan announcing independence would bring unrest and a domino effect would occur with regard to Tibet and Xinjiang, this is China's greatest fear. There would be no difference between Taiwan announcing independence to the outside world and the current situation. Taiwan has no need to announce independence, and there won't be any problem if only the name "Taiwan" is used. 
	
	
 
	
	
 Attachments: TYSP 19 feb 02-1.pdf